CLAIM: There are 10 million illegal immigrants in South Africa
SOURCE: South African politician Gayton McKenzie
VERDICT: Misleading: Official data and UN statistics estimate the foreign population at around 4 million
Immigration has been an issue of social media debate around the November 1 local government elections in South Africa.
The debate has included various claims on the size of the foreign population in the country. Politician Gayton McKenzie claimed on October 20, 2021, that there are 10 million undocumented foreigners in South Africa. Other social media claims were of migrant populations of 5 million.
What does South Africa’s official data say?
Figures on the foreigner population in South Africa are contentious.
South Africa’s statistics agency, StatsSA, puts the total number of foreigners at 3.95 million.
According to Risenga Maluleke, StatsSA Statistician-General: “If one uses the output of foreign born persons enumerated in Census 2011 and adds to it the net international migrants for the period 2011-2016 as well as the period 2016-2021 from the 2021 mid-year population estimates one would get an estimation of 3.95 million persons.”
According to Maluleke, in a statement in August 2021, that figure includes both documented and undocumented foreigners.
Stats SA has conducted three censuses since South Africa’s first democratic elections ; these were held in 1996, 2001 and 2011. The data from those censuses revealed that the number of people in the country born outside South Africa were 958 188 in 1996, 1.03 million in 2001 and 2.2 million in 2011.
By 2020, the number was 3.9 million, according to Statistics South Africa’s mid-year population estimates for the year.
“It is important to note that the population census enumerates all persons within the borders of SA, irrespective of their citizenship, or migratory status,” StatsSA says.
What do other sources say?
According to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN-DESA), there were 4.2 million foreigners in South Africa in 2019.
In 2020, politician Herman Mashaba claimed that there were 15 million illegal immigrants in South Africa. The source for his claim was a 2019 article that spoke about the number of people in South Africa who do not have identification. The article was based on data from the World Bank showing that, in 2018, 15.3 million people in South Africa did not have identification documents.
That figure was on the total number of people who are unregistered, including South Africans, and not the number of undocumented foreigners. Mashaba later released a statement admitting he was wrong.
How many Zimbabweans are in South Africa?
There is no verifiable data on the number of Zimbabweans in South Africa.
The 2011 census estimated that, of the foreign population of 2,188,872 living in South Africa that year, 672,308 were from Zimbabwe. The number is likely higher. The Zimbabwean Exemption Permit Holders Association, which has gone to the Gauteng High Court to appeal for Zimbabwean holders of special permits to be declared permanent residents, says in court papers that it represents roughly 250 000 Zimbabweans in South Africa.
According to the International Organisation of Migration, Zimbabwe has the largest group of migrants across the Southern African region. It puts the number of Zimbabweans living in other SADC countries at 911 981, which is 14% of the immigrant population in the region.
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